<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?><!-- generator=Zoho Sites --><rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><atom:link href="https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/author/cullen/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><title>Vulcury Advisors - Insights by Cullen </title><description>Vulcury Advisors - Insights by Cullen </description><link>https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/author/cullen</link><lastBuildDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2026 05:47:06 -0700</lastBuildDate><generator>http://zoho.com/sites/</generator><item><title><![CDATA[Unveiling the Critical Pieces of a Company's Corporate Strategy]]></title><link>https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/post/unveiling-the-critical-pieces-of-a-companys-corporate-strategy</link><description><![CDATA[Understanding a company's corporate strategy is key to grasping the overarching direction in which the company is headed. But what constitutes this strategy? Let's dissect the integral pieces that create a comprehensive corporate strategy.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_c0MAFpERTVWyvSFic45QkA" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_uYSvWWnKS9mK1B7_IuQk0Q" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_JiIdAYrfTJ24-v3_9ZC0dg" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_sMfw-1_RRt6YFQ8suRUqrw" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_sMfw-1_RRt6YFQ8suRUqrw"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-align-center zpheading-align-mobile-center zpheading-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true">Unveiling the Critical Pieces of a Company's Corporate Strategy</h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_tiiV5bDSRGuuKbCbANNwfg" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_tiiV5bDSRGuuKbCbANNwfg"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center zptext-align-mobile-center zptext-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true"><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Understanding a company's corporate strategy is key to grasping the overarching direction in which the company is headed. But what constitutes this strategy? Let's dissect the integral pieces that create a comprehensive corporate strategy.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Vision and Mission Statements</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">At the core of any corporate strategy lie a company's vision and mission statements. The vision sets out a long-term target, a destination where the company aspires to reach. It often answers questions about the company's future: Where do we want to be? How do we want to shape the industry or the world?</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">The mission statement, on the other hand, describes the company's present situation and its purpose. It outlines what the company does, who it serves, and how it does it. Together, these two elements provide a framework for the corporate strategy, guiding decisions and inspiring employees.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Strategic Objectives and Goals</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">From the vision and mission, strategic objectives and goals can be derived. They provide specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) targets that contribute to the achievement of the vision. These objectives give a sense of direction and make the vision and mission operational.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Objectives should reflect key business areas, such as profitability, market share, product development, or customer satisfaction. Goals then break down these broader objectives into smaller, quantifiable targets that can be pursued within a specific timeline.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Core Values</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">The core values of a company are the fundamental beliefs that guide its behavior and decision-making process. They serve as the moral compass of the company and should be reflected in every aspect of the business, from customer service to hiring practices.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Values form the company’s identity, strengthening its brand and fostering a positive corporate culture. They also help the company to attract and retain like-minded employees and customers, thus enhancing its competitiveness and sustainability.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">SWOT Analysis</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">An essential component of a corporate strategy is understanding the company's internal and external environment. This is typically done through a SWOT analysis - an evaluation of the company's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Strengths and weaknesses are internal factors that give a company a competitive advantage or disadvantage. Opportunities and threats, on the other hand, are external factors that can impact a company's success. A SWOT analysis helps companies align their resources and capabilities with the market opportunities, minimize risks, and build a sustainable competitive advantage.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Strategic Initiatives</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Strategic initiatives are the major activities a company plans to undertake to achieve its strategic objectives and goals. They may involve launching a new product or service, entering a new market, acquiring or merging with another company, investing in new technologies, or implementing a new business process.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">These initiatives should be prioritized based on their potential impact on the company's strategic objectives and the resources required. They should also be monitored regularly to ensure they are on track and delivering the desired outcomes.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Resource Allocation</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">A corporate strategy is only as good as the resources allocated to execute it. This includes financial resources, human resources, time, technology, and other assets.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Deciding where to allocate resources is crucial because it determines which strategic initiatives will be pursued and how effectively they can be executed. A clear resource allocation plan also helps to ensure all parts of the organization are working towards the same strategic objectives and avoids wastage of resources.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Performance Metrics</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Performance metrics are used to measure the success of the corporate strategy. They provide a way to track progress towards strategic objectives and goals, evaluate the effectiveness of strategic initiatives, and make necessary adjustments.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Common performance metrics include financial measures, such as revenue growth, profitability, and return on investment; customer measures, such as customer satisfaction, customer retention, and market share; and internal measures, such as productivity, efficiency, and employee&nbsp;<span style="color:inherit;">engagement. The choice of metrics should align with the company's strategic objectives and reflect what matters most to the business.</span></p><div style="color:inherit;"><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Corporate Governance</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Corporate governance refers to the system of rules, practices, and processes by which a company is directed and controlled. It involves balancing the interests of a company's many stakeholders, such as shareholders, management, customers, suppliers, financiers, government, and the community.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Good corporate governance is crucial for a successful corporate strategy as it ensures accountability, fairness, and transparency in a company's relationship with all its stakeholders. It also helps to mitigate risks, protect the rights of shareholders, and ensure compliance with laws and regulations.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Communication Strategy</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Communication is a key piece of the corporate strategy puzzle that often gets overlooked. A well-defined communication strategy ensures all stakeholders – from employees and shareholders to customers and the public – understand the company's strategic direction and how they contribute to it.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">The communication strategy should include regular updates on the company's strategic initiatives, progress towards objectives, and changes in the external environment. It should also provide opportunities for feedback and dialogue, thereby promoting engagement and buy-in.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Change Management</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Last but certainly not least, change management is an essential part of any corporate strategy. As the strategy is implemented, it will inevitably bring about change – in structures, processes, roles, and culture. How these changes are managed can significantly impact the success of the strategy.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">A good change management plan should consider the potential resistance to change and include strategies to overcome it. It should also ensure employees are adequately trained and supported to adapt to the new ways of working.</p><h1 style="text-align:left;font-weight:600;">Conclusion</h1><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">In conclusion, a corporate strategy is a multifaceted and dynamic concept that guides a company's direction and decision-making process. It comprises several critical pieces – vision and mission statements, strategic objectives and goals, core values, SWOT analysis, strategic initiatives, resource allocation, performance metrics, corporate governance, communication strategy, and change management.</p><p style="text-align:left;font-size:16px;">Each piece is interconnected and plays a vital role in shaping the company's future. Together, they provide a roadmap for the company's journey towards its vision, offering a compass to navigate the ever-changing business landscape. Thus, designing and implementing a robust corporate strategy is crucial for any company seeking to achieve sustainable success.</p></div></div></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Tue, 02 Apr 2024 20:40:33 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Who is to blame for inflation?]]></title><link>https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/post/who-is-to-blame-for-inflation</link><description><![CDATA[In this vlog post, Vulcury CIO Cullen Hilkene speaks to the factors contributing to the current inflationary environment.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_DTV_7P1aRGSKonb9XHiy0w" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_vwjqDl7OSba5BdwoacYRTg" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_REs-YlK5QSqj9LX6iN6w6A" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_od2Xf3dLT2KkGoJLkzdQaA" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_od2Xf3dLT2KkGoJLkzdQaA"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-align-center zpheading-align-mobile-center zpheading-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true">Inflation: How did we get here and who is to blame?</h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_fGHkXUxPR0CWltbeh_-JKQ" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_fGHkXUxPR0CWltbeh_-JKQ"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center zptext-align-mobile-center zptext-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true"><p>In this vlog post, Vulcury CIO Cullen Hilkene speaks to the factors contributing to the current inflationary environment.</p><p><br/></p></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2022 13:34:52 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[On Today's Market Surge]]></title><link>https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/post/on-todays-market-surge</link><description><![CDATA[Check out our commentary on today's market move, with an exploration of why today's less-hot-than-expected read of the Consumer Price Index is driving a bit market rally.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_TxX6ogNqTMWpUdV1vspyGA" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_8EaO74SgRe-e8GnxxdAC4w" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_GxEqRICdTeCCEBSIFnC0ZQ" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_ZpKGyffXRBa7eAamtKCRKw" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_ZpKGyffXRBa7eAamtKCRKw"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-align-center zpheading-align-mobile-center zpheading-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true">Commentary on the Market's Surge: What's in a CPI Read</h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_2XJ479IlS-O42U-AlK0sXg" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_2XJ479IlS-O42U-AlK0sXg"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center zptext-align-mobile-center zptext-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true"><p>Check out our commentary on today's market move, with an exploration of why today's less-hot-than-expected read of the Consumer Price Index is driving a bit market rally.</p></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2022 13:09:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[A No-Win Situation]]></title><link>https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/post/a-no-win-situation</link><description><![CDATA[In a place where CPI has gone out of control. The biggest pieces of this are food and energy prices, over which the Fed has no control.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_c0MAFpERTVWyvSFic45QkA" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_uYSvWWnKS9mK1B7_IuQk0Q" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_JiIdAYrfTJ24-v3_9ZC0dg" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_sMfw-1_RRt6YFQ8suRUqrw" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_sMfw-1_RRt6YFQ8suRUqrw"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-align-center zpheading-align-mobile-center zpheading-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true">Restrictiveness of Fed Mandate and Policy Limitations Setting Stage for Economic Disaster</h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_tiiV5bDSRGuuKbCbANNwfg" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_tiiV5bDSRGuuKbCbANNwfg"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center zptext-align-mobile-center zptext-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true"><p style="text-align:left;">On a single day last week, markets sold off to the tune of nearly 1300 points on the Dow - just under 4%.&nbsp; This was topped by downward moves of 4.32% on the S&amp;P 500 and 5.16% on the NASDAQ. All of this was an appropriate - if sudden - reaction to the facts on the ground.&nbsp; Market had moved up steadily over the previous two weeks, signaling the hopes of the market that a Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading would come out that confirmed the Fed was starting to get inflation under control.</p><p style="text-align:left;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:left;">What we got was the opposite.&nbsp; Instead of a YOY growth of 8.1%, the read came in at 8.3%.&nbsp; Nominally, the difference doesn't seem of much consequence.&nbsp; But directionally, it was deeply troubling.&nbsp; In July, Inflation actually got worse relative to previous year reads for July.&nbsp; And this reading - indicating that the inflation fight is getting worse, not better, effectively ensured another 75 basis point hike of the critical Federal Funds Rate later this month.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:left;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:left;">That is exactly what we got.&nbsp; And the markets have been aggressively selling off since.</p><p style="text-align:left;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:left;">This last 75 bps hike was effectively assured because of the Fed's dual mandate: low unemployment and stable prices.&nbsp; Statutorily, the Fed is asked to only concern itself with those two things.&nbsp; As we are probably all aware, the unemployment rate is at the lowest levels since the 1960s, less than 4%.&nbsp; With an unemployment rate so low, Fed Chair Powell and his team are left with only one thing to focus its attention on: stable prices.&nbsp; And this CPI data - and likely the PPI and PPE data that is to follow in the next weeks - reinforce the notion that there's quite a lot of work to do to establish price stability.&nbsp; Whether at 8.1% or 8.3%, there's still a lot of ground to cover en route to a &quot;normal&quot; rate on the order of 2.5%.</p><p style="text-align:left;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:left;">The Fed is now doing what it is obligated to do - using every tool at its disposal to bring inflation down.&nbsp; The problem with this: it only has two tools, and those tools&nbsp;have generally been the wrong ones for solving the problem at hand.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:left;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:left;">The Fed's two tools are the Fed Funds Rate and its balance sheet.&nbsp;&nbsp;<span style="color:inherit;text-align:center;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;text-align:center;"><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;">The Fed Funds rate is its lending rate to banks.&nbsp; As their rate rises, the banks borrowing from them need to adjust their rates up correspondingly.&nbsp; When these rates ultimately reach businesses or retail investors, the higher interest rate constrains their willingness to borrow money.&nbsp; This leads to cooling of the economy, as fewer items get purchased, fewer commodities are required to produce those items, and demand diminishes.</span></p><div><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="text-align:left;">The Fed's balance sheet is its other tool.&nbsp; In times of financial crisis, it has been empowered to buy financial instruments - especially treasuries and mortgage backed securities.&nbsp; This activity has, in the past, created liquidity in the market when it would otherwise be constrained.&nbsp; Thus, it &quot;greased the skids&quot; for banks to lend more money, in turn accelerating the market.&nbsp; Now, as the Fed seeks to cool down the market, it has begun selling assets on its balance sheet.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:left;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;">Are those two tools appropriate for solving the challenge at hand?&nbsp; Put simply, no they are not.&nbsp; They are tools for stimulating and constraining demand.&nbsp; What we face at the current moment is largely a supply problem.&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;"><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;">Current inflationary pressure is largely driven by unique geopolitical events and a unique brew created by the related responses.&nbsp; The first of these was Covid-19 and the related snags it created in global supply chains.&nbsp; As the virus spread around the world, governments at the&nbsp;</span><span style="color:inherit;">local, state, and national level&nbsp;</span><span style="color:inherit;">called for lockdowns.&nbsp; Moreover, the short term impact of Covid also led to some businesses going under.&nbsp; All of this contributed to unreliable supply chains.&nbsp; Many companies were forced to identify alternative sources of supply.&nbsp; In some cases, this led to double or triple buying of certain goods in an attempt to ensure some supply reached demand.&nbsp; Prices surged, as those companies that remained open were in prime position to take advantage of their pricing power with customers.&nbsp; These higher prices would normally have an adverse impact on demand - but fiscal stimulus by the governments of the world and aggressive rate cuts by central banks both ensured that demand would stay intact.&nbsp; In fact,&nbsp; consumer demand generally soared.&nbsp; Cheap rates and modern tele-presence tools enabled city dwellers to buy second and third homes away from the dense cities they previously called home, creating bidding wars in suburbs and vacation destinations.&nbsp; Direct payments to&nbsp; citizens ensured that demand for consumer staples and discretionary goods wouldn't dry up either.&nbsp; In fact, demand for those goods would soar as the ability to spend that money on travel and entertainment was curtailed by Covid closures.&nbsp; Once the economy reopened, it begat&nbsp;</span><span style="color:inherit;text-align:center;">a boom in travel spending, where pent up demand was met by travel and entertainment companies that were happy to recoup losses during the pandemic.&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;">This unique combination of very accommodative policy to drive demand and constrained supply led us to skyrocketing prices across the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;"><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;">The Fed recognized this and began raising rates in early 2022.&nbsp; Unfortunately, the genie was out of the bottle.&nbsp; Inflation has proved far stickier and less transient than they'd hoped.&nbsp; People who saw their wages increase during the pandemic and home values skyrocket aren't keen to see those values come down.&nbsp; With the US being a 2/3 service economy, the wage impacts on inflation are huge.&nbsp; Momentum in the real estate market also proved stubborn.&nbsp; People who had only seen home prices go up - FAST - for years continued to buy.&nbsp; In fact, the fact that rates were going up motivated certain buyers to move faster.&nbsp; With 1/3 of the typical consumer's expenditure being allocated to shelter, the impact of higher prices for real estate is huge.&nbsp; Those who couldn't afford to buy are forced to rent at higher prices, corresponding to the increase in the underlying homes and apartments.&nbsp; Last but not least, the Russia's invasion of Ukraine added another unique constraint to the supply chain, as the farmlands of Ukraine and the oil fields of Russia were effectively taken out of the supply.&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;"><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:left;">So where does this leave us currently?&nbsp; In a place where CPI has gone out of control.&nbsp; The biggest pieces of this are food and energy prices, over which the Fed has no control.&nbsp; Nevertheless, they remain the body<span style="color:inherit;">&nbsp;statutorily obligated to control inflation, so they are doing the only things they can to tamp down inflation - raise rates and reduce the balance sheet.&nbsp; This will eventually work.&nbsp; Eventually, higher interest rates on everything will tamp down demand.&nbsp; But it's a bit like pushing a box and doing it from an off angle rather than directly behind.&nbsp; You'll move the box where you want it to go...but you'll expend a lot more energy and effort than if you were able to tackle the problem squarely.&nbsp; And along the way, you'll cause that box to spin.&nbsp; Our economy is that spinning box.</span></p></div></div></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Thu, 15 Sep 2022 13:09:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Fed is going to hike rates by at least 75 bps. Here's why]]></title><link>https://www.vulcury.com/blogs/post/the-fed-might-still-hike-a-full-point</link><description><![CDATA[When a Dual Mandate Becomes a Single Mandate, Talk of 50bps is folly.]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_4dmNdMoSR0CKKl8BbHKcHw" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_S_zBKe7lQAm70QmRLb5iZA" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_DsjkHIDSTbWbMsI6q7TTeA" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_DsjkHIDSTbWbMsI6q7TTeA"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_X88W2TtQTJejwDkMTYvH0A" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_X88W2TtQTJejwDkMTYvH0A"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-align-center zpheading-align-mobile-center zpheading-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true"><span style="font-weight:700;">When a Dual Mandate Becomes a Single Mandate, Talk of 50bps is folly</span></h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_M1FMuxz_RcakMVN0JJUj_g" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_M1FMuxz_RcakMVN0JJUj_g"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center zptext-align-mobile-center zptext-align-tablet-center " data-editor="true"><div><p style="text-align:left;color:inherit;"><span style="color:inherit;">&nbsp;</span><span style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">The Fed Decision is within hours.</span></p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">In recent weeks, there has been some exuberance in the stock market, as a few economic indicators suggested that perhaps the Fed wouldn’t tighten as much as the anticipated 75 bps hike.&nbsp; Most recently, we’ve seen better-than-feared earnings from the likes of Google, and encouraging guidance from Microsoft, which has caused a small pop today across the tech sector.</p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">Our view is that we should expect another 75 bps hike, and that the likelihood of any variance from that is more likely to be a 100 bps hike than a 50bps hike.&nbsp;</p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">It was just about a little more than a week ago where traders were betting that the Fed could raise interest rates by a full percentage point.&nbsp; However, on the heels of that, we got some news out of the University of Michigan that in fact we've seen a drop in the expectations around inflation moving forward and overall increase in consumer confidence.&nbsp; </p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">&nbsp;</p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">This led to a major surge in stock prices since July 13<sup>th</sup>. </p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">However, let’s take a moment to really consider what the UofM data really means.&nbsp; </p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">&nbsp;</p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">The UofM data specified that consumers expect inflation to go down.&nbsp; Expectations over the next year were 5.5 percent, and now are 5.2 percent.&nbsp; Consumers are feeling more confident that inflation will get under control.&nbsp; That’s it.&nbsp; It’s more a statement on confidence in the Fed, regression to the mean, or the impacts of a recession than it is a statement of confidence that inflation is going away very soon.</p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">&nbsp;</p><p style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">Fact of the matter is that the Fed has a dual mandate to a) keep unemployment low and b) control inflation.&nbsp; Beyond that, we’d argue, the Fed also has an implied mandate to maintain its legitimacy.&nbsp; All three of those factors are pointing a single direction – a big rise in rates.&nbsp; Inflation is around 9%. Unemployment is at levels not seen since the 1960s (3.6%).&nbsp; And many made the declaration that “the Fed has no credibility when it comes to battling inflation.”&nbsp; </p><p></p><div style="text-align:left;"><br/></div><span style="color:inherit;"><div style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;">Add those three things together and you’re going to see a 75bps hike.&nbsp; We frankly see more than enough justification for a 100 bps hike, but given the Fed’s predisposition toward avoiding surprises, we expect we’d have seen a few leaks as a trial balloon to prime the market.&nbsp; We haven’t seen those in a substantial way.</span></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align:left;color:inherit;">&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:left;color:inherit;">So 75bps hike.&nbsp; A small chance of 100bps.&nbsp; Mark it down.&nbsp; And expect further hiking as we move forward.&nbsp; The bigger question is whether the Fed’s actions actually have sway over enough of the market to bring its inflation metrics under control.&nbsp; That’s a discussion for another post.</p></div></div>
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